Morning News Bulletin

Tuesday July 8th, 2008

Early Edition

8am

 

Economic Numbers    

 

Date

ET

Release

For

Range

Consensus

Prior

Actual

Jul 08

10:00

Pending Home Sales

May

 

-2.8%

6.3%

 

Jul 08

10:00

Wholesale Inventories

May

 

0.7%

1.3%

 

Jul 08

15:00

Consumer Credit

May

 

$7.0B

$8.9B

 

 

Technical 

                   Moving Averages                                                             

                                50-Day                   200-Day                                                                

S&P                                                                                                                     

Dow                       

NASDAQ      

                                                                       

Futures

 

S&P futures vs fair value: -8.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -18.5.

 

Pre-Market Movers

 

Gapping up:  OPWV +11.5%, UXG +8.3%, BPHX +7.5%, BEXP +5.9%, YGE +4.8%, GSK +4.3%, TRLG +3.9%, MDVN +3.7%, GMXR +2.2%, UBS +1.6%, TEVA +1.1%...

Gapping down: BRLC -67.4%, IMB -32.4%, ODP -11.1%, GOLD -4.3%, LMC -3.6%, TS -3.4%, SNV -3.0%, AOB -3.0%, LYG -2.6%, BCS -2.5%, MT -2.3%, BCS -1.7%, HOGS -1.6%.

 

Tuesday July 8th, 2008 Top News Stories

 

 

 The Wall Street Journal reports the best worst-case scenario for Freddie Mac (FRE) and Fannie Mae (FNM) looks to be large capital raises in which millions of new common shares are issued, diluting the holdings of existing shareholders. FBR Capital Markets analyst Paul Miller believes each co needs to raise an extra $15 bln in common equity. Fannie, for instance, has a current market value of about $15 bln. That means that at its current stock price it would have to roughly double its shares outstanding to raise $15 bln. And it isn't clear just how much new capital Fannie and Freddie need. Mr. Miller's $15 bln could prove optimistic. Each quarter, Fannie and Freddie release an estimate of the market value of their balance sheets and net worth. At the end of March, Freddie's net worth available to common shareholders was negative to the tune of $16.9 bln. But even that number was inflated by a $16.6 bln deferred-tax asset, which has a questionable value. In other words, Freddie would have to issue more than $30 bln of stock to cover the $16.9 bln market-value deficit and the deferred-tax asset. Some of the market-value losses will be made up over time. But some losses could get worse. Credit losses could rise to higher-than-expected levels if house prices continue to plunge. 

 

Tuesday July 8th, 2008

 

Earnings/Guidance

 

PBG Pepsi Bottling Reports Q2 (May) earnings of $0.78 per share, $0.03 better than the First Call consensus of $0.75; revenues rose 4.8% year/year to $3.52 bln vs the $3.55 bln consensus. Co reaffirms EPS guidance for FY08, sees EPS of $2.30-2.38 vs. $2.35 consensus; co sees rev growth of about 5-6%, which equates to approx $14.3-14.4 bln vs $14.4 bln consensus, compared to previous guidance of rev growth of about 6-7%.

 


GBX Greenbrier Comp Reports Q3 (May) earnings of $0.49 per share, $0.11 better than the First Call consensus of $0.38; revenues fell 1.2% year/year to $382.1 mln vs the $352.9 mln consensus. New railcar manufacturing backlog was 17,500 units valued at $1.55 bln at May 31, 2008, compared to 18,800 units valued at $1.64 bln at February 29, 2008.

 

SSI Stage Stores Co issues upside guidance for Q2 (Jul), sees EPS of above $0.23 vs. $0.18 First Call consensus

 

BPHX Blue Phoenix Co issues downside guidance for Q2 (Jun), sees Q2 (Jun) revs of $22.7-23.0 mln vs. $23.68 mln First Call consensus. Arik Kilman, CEO of BluePhoenix commented, "Based on a preliminary review of our second quarter results, revenues are expected to be in the range of $22.7 to $23.0 million for Q208, up approx 18% to 20% compared to $19.2 mln in last year's same period. Challenging global economic conditions, particularly related to IT spending have resulted in a somewhat longer sales cycle, and as such, our ability to forecast the timing of revenue recognition is proving more difficult than normal."

 

CALD Callidus Software Co issues downside guidance, sees Q2 revs of $23.1-23.7 mln, compared to previous guidance of $28-29.5 mln, vs $28.8 mln consensus; co sees GAAP operating expenses of $13.7-14.2 mln, compared to previous guidance of $15.2-16.2 mln. 

 

CBBO Columbia Banc Co issues in-line guidance for Q2 (Jun), sees EPS of ($0.04)-($0.06) vs. ($0.05) First Call consensus. Columbia also announced the Board of Directors approved a reduction of the quarterly cash dividend to $0.01 per share. 

 

CHKP Check Point Sftwr: Expecting another strong quarter

 

Other Stock News

 

DWA  DreamWorks  The Wall Street Journal reports DreamWorks Animation SKG (DWA) has chosen Intel (INTC) to supply chips and other technology for its big computer-animation operations, a shift that will cost Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) one of its most prestigious customers. The pact is expected to replace the studio's computing hardware -- which now includes 1,500 Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) server systems and 1,000 workstations that use AMD microprocessors -- with new H-P systems that use Intel chips. DreamWorks Animation said the resulting increase in computing power would substantially shorten the time needed for many computing chores and aid the studio's planned shift next year to 3-D animation.

 

BCS Barclays PLC  Bloomberg.com reports Barclays said it will stop selling new loans at its U.K. subprime loans unit and shed about 300 jobs at the division. About 130 employees will remain at the Cardiff, Wales-based unit to manage existing customer loans, the London-based bank said.

]

BIDU  Baidu.com Piper Jaffray says their checks indicate that the June quarter is tracking slightly above Street estimates of $112 mln in revenue and $0.97 in EPS. The firm says even with uncertainty around the impact from Olympics, they believe that Baidu will maintain the Q308 Street estimates given Street is currently looking for 21% q/q revenue growth in September vs. last year's 26% growth.

 

BTRX Barrier Therapeutics: Stiefel Laboratories commences tender offer to acquire Barrier Therapeutics for $4.15/share

 

GSK GlaxoSmithKline's Tyverb cancer drug fails to win U.K. backing on cost

 

 

IMB IndyMac Banc  FBR cuts their tgt to $0.00 from $1, after the co announced that its Q2 loss will exceed losses in Q1, it is no longer "well-capitalized," it has been unable to raise additional capital, it will lay off 53% of its workforce, and it will stop originating most new loans (which firm thinks is the most significant of the co's actions). Firm is not predicting IMB's failure, but does not believe that there is any value left for common shareholders after these actions.

 

 

Monday July 7th, 2008

 

Earnings/Guidance

 

GMXR GMX Resources Co raises its FY08 revenue guidance to $140 mln vs. $131.07 mln and vs. previous guidance of $125 mln. Co also raises its 2008 discretionary cash flow guidance to $100 mln, up from $80 mln, and its EBITDA to $115 mln, up from $95 mln.

 

Other Stock News

 

VSEC Energetics wins DoE contract to support federal energy programs

 

PENN Penn National Gaming secures option to acquire potential gaming site in Perryville Maryland

 

Economic

 

Secondary Offerings/IPO’s

 

 

Filings: MSCI Inc. (MXB) files for a 23 mln share offering by selling stockholders... Cell Therapeutics (CTIC) files two S-3 filings offering a total of 34.9 mln common stock shares issuable upon exercise of warrants, by selling shareholders... Exelixis (EXEL) files for a 9.9 mln share offering by selling security holders.... Kirklands (KIRK) files for a 2.6 mln common stock offering by selling shareholders. OfferingsCell Therapeutics (CTIC) also files a separate S-3 for a 43.6 mln common stock offering... IPC The Hospitalist files for a 3.5 mln share offering, 1.135 mln for the company, and 2.36 mln by selling stockholders. 

 

 S&P Index Changes

 

S&P SmallCap 600 constituent Helix Energy Solutions Group (HLX) will replace Activision (ATVI) in the S&P MidCap 400, and True Religion Apparel (TRLG) will replace Helix Energy Solutions in the S&P SmallCap 600.

 

Cramer’s “Mad Money” Recap

 

On Monday's edition, Jim recommends Genentech (DNA) as his favorite biotech name and claims its time to buy shares off the com's negative press from a recent New York Times story. He called the Times story a non-event and said the resulting weakness in the shares provides a perfect entry point to buy the stock. Cramer also noted that sales of Avastin, which have been sluggish for the past three quarters, are set to beat expectations and begin boosting the stock.

 

Upgrades

 

 

Company

Ticker

Brokerage Firm

Ratings Change

Price Target

Medivation

MDVN

Rodman & Renshaw

Mkt Perform » Mkt Outperform

$24

Master card

MA

Morgan Stanley

 

$320

ACE Limited

ACE

Wachovia

Mkt Perform » Outperform

 

NCR Corp

NCR

Robert W. Baird

Neutral » Outperform

$26 » $31

Fulton Fincl

FULT

Keefe Bruyette

Underperform » Mkt Perform

$9

Valley National

VLY

Keefe Bruyette

Underperform » Mkt Perform

$14

WD-40 Company

WDFC

JP Morgan

Underweight » Neutral

 

Capital Trust

CT

UBS

Sell » Neutral

 

Marsh McLennan

MMC

Citigroup

Hold » Buy

$30 » $33

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals

ACAD

Banc of America Sec

Sell » Neutral

 

 

 

Downgrades

 

Company

Ticker

Brokerage Firm

Ratings Change

Price Target

Tween Brands

TWB

Friedman Billings

Outperform » Mkt Perform

$23 » $18

Gymboree

GYMB

Friedman Billings

Outperform » Mkt Perform

$49 » $43

Asset Acceptance Capital

AACC

Jefferies & Co

Hold » Underperform

$8

Skyepharma plc

SKYE

Jefferies & Co

Hold » Underperform

 

Synovus

SNV

Morgan Keegan

Outperform » Mkt Perform

 

Tronox

TRX

Lehman Brothers

Equal-Weight » Underweight

 

Teva Pharm

TEVA

Deutsche Securities

Buy » Hold

$55 » $47

Downey Fincl

DSL

Lehman Brothers

Overweight » Equal-Weight

 

Omnicom

OMC

Bernstein

Outperform » Mkt Perform

 

Willis Group

WSH

Citigroup

Buy » Hold

$40 » $36

 

 

 

8am

 

 

*The information contained herein has been compiled from various public news sources and from the public domain. Hold Brothers On-Line Investment Services LLC provides this information solely as a convenience to its traders. Neither Hold Brothers On-Line Investment Services LLC nor its data or content providers make any representation or recommendation as to the stocks identified herein, nor shall they shall be liable for any errors in the content, or for any damages as a result of actions taken in reliance on this information. This material does not constitute nor should be considered stock research on the part of Hold Brothers On-Line Investment Services LLC. Trade at your own risk.

 

For internal use only.